CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-12T05:48:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1974 (S13W05,
Fsc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth and separation in the
intermediate spots, and was responsible for the majority of the flare
activity throughout the period, including three M-class flares. The
first, an M1, was observed at 11/1651 UTC, the second and largest of the
period, was an M3/2n flare that occurred at 12/0425 UTC, and the third
and final M-class flare was an M2 flare at 12/0658 UTC. Region 1974 was
responsible for a C8 and a C5 flare during the period as well.

Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.
Previous analysis of the two CMEs associated with the M1 flare and the
eruptive filament on 11 Feb indicated a potential arrival at Earth mid
to late day on 14 Feb. Initial rough analysis of the M3/2n flare
mentioned earlier, indicated an associated full halo CME with an
estimated speed of 743 km/s, making an approximate arrival time at Earth
early on 15 Feb. An Enlil run has been submitted and adjustments to
timing will be made, based on the output of this model run. An eruptive
prominence on the southwest limb was observed lifting off from
approximately 12/0635 UTC to 12/0754 UTC. The associated CME appears to
have a trajectory too far southward to have an impact at Earth.

Region 1978 (N05W45, Dso/beta) exhibited consolidation in both the
leader and trailer spots, yet remained inactive throughout the period.
The rest of the spotted groups were relatively stable and inactive.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) with
a slight chance for a X flare (R3, Strong) during the forecast period
(12-14 Feb).


Energetic Particle


.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (12-14 Feb).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as observed at the ACE spacecraft, reflected what
appears to be the recovery from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) transitioning to the influence of weak transient. The beginning of
the period saw solar wind speeds steadily dropping from approximately
443 km/s to a minimum of 396 km/s. At the same time, IMF total filed
strength was fairly steady between 4 nT and 6 nT, IMF Bz was positive,
and Phi angle was in a negative (towards) sector. Around 11/1800 UTC, a
solar sector boundary change (SSBC) was observed, transitioning Phi
angle to a positive (away) orientation, dropping Bz to approximately -5
nT, and a slight increase in solar wind speed, back to approximately 440
km/s. Right around 11/2300 UTC, Phi angle again switched back to a
negative (towards) orientation, IMF Bt increased to approximately 6 nT,
Bz switched back to positive, and wind speeds began a steady climb. By
12/0330 UTC, wind speeds were back above 460 km/s, Bt was a steady 5 nT,
Bz dropped back southward to -3 nT, and Phi was firmly back into a
negative (towards) orientation. This is believed to be the influence of
a weak transient passing close enough to affect the Earth's
magnetosphere.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are likely to remain slightly elevated for day one
(12 Feb) as the result of weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) effects, returning to mostly quiet conditions on day two
(13 Feb). The CMEs from 11 February are anticipated to arrive mid to
late on day 3 (14 Feb), with the potential arrival of today's full halo
CME just outside this forecast window.

Geospace

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (12 Feb) and mostly quiet on day two (13 Feb). Initial effects
from the 11 Feb CMEs are expected to begin mid to late day on day three
(14 Feb) with a peak of active conditions (less than G1 - Minor)
forecast at initial onset.

--

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1974 (S12W12,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit areal growth as well as
separation in the intermediate spots. It was responsible for the
majority of flare activity over the period, including three M-class
events. One of these, an M3/2n flare at 12/0425 UTC, was associated with
a full-halo CME with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s, to accompany
the two CMEs from 11 Feb. All three CMEs are expected to impact the
Magnetosphere beginning mid-to-late on 14 Feb and carry over into 15
Feb. New Region 1979 (N14W40, Bxo/beta) was numbered today. All other
regions were unremarkable during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with
a slight chance for a X flare (R3, Strong) during the forecast period
(13-15 Feb).


Energetic Particle


.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate levels for the onset of the forecast period (13 Feb).
Flux values will likely diminish after mid-day of day two (14 Feb) and
through day three (15 Feb) due to a redistribution of particles
following the arrival of the three anticipated CMEs. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind


.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to be mostly ambient for day one (13
Feb) and the first half of day two (14 Feb). The CMEs from 11 February
are anticipated to arrive mid to late on day two (14 Feb) and persist
through day three (15 Feb). Today's halo-CME is expected to arrive early
on 15 Feb. Increases in solar wind speeds to near 500 km/s are expected
beyond mid-day on the 14th, along with intermittent CME-related changes
in density, temperature, and magnetic disposition as the events pass
around Earth's magnetosphere.

Geospace



.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
day one (13 Feb) and into the first half of day two (14 Feb). Initial
effects from the 11 Feb CMEs are expected to begin mid to late on the
14th, and carry throughout day three (15 Feb). Geomagnetic activity as
high as G1 (minor) storm levels are expected at onset of transient
arrival on the 14th, and levels as high as G2 (moderate) are expected on
the 15th.

--

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2014

            Feb 13     Feb 14     Feb 15
00-03UT        2          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          2          6 (G2)
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          3          4     
15-18UT        1          4          3     
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     4     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected during
Feb 14 - 15 due to multiple CME passages.
....

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